The JF Tobias September Market Decode has been released, containing all the latest JF Tobias insight and analysis on fine wine market performance. It remains the best independent analysis, and helps our clients to stay up to date with what is happening in the fine wine market, and understand fine wine market performance.
- 12% increase in people looking to sell fine wine, against last month
- Enquiries to sell totalling: £1,643,449 submitted to JF Tobias in the past month
- HK sale share increases by 10%, US decreases by 3%, UK by 1%
- Sterling shows signs of appreciation
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Sterling shows signs of appreciation
As the Supreme Court ruled Johnson’s move to suspend parliament for five weeks before the Oct. 31 Brexit deadline was unlawful and parliament was free to re-convene, Sterling increased significantly.
Confirming that Sterling is still operating as a proxy between deal and no-deal, the issue for financial markets is whether the Supreme Court’s decision materially changes existing assumptions about the
probability of a negotiated Brexit deal.
Predicting the ultimate outcome of Brexit remains difficult, but the short and medium-term risk return for the fine wine market looks uncertain. At JF Tobias, we believe an appreciating Sterling remains a real risk.
Although the number of enquiries to sell increased slightly in August, after the 90% increase the month before this remains reflective of the actions already taken to redress risk and re- balance portfolios ahead of the approaching Brexit deadlines in October.
Continued unrest in HK dampens enthusiasm
Whilst both UK and US sale share receded slightly on the previous month, HK increased its share by 10%.
That HK posted such an increase is good news. However, understood within the wider context of the Mid-Autumn Festival, often a good indicator for the wider health of the fine wine market in China, early enthusiasm is dampened.
Many merchants cited weakened demand from the mainland, and, with US sale share receding too, the effects of the Sino-US trade war continue to bite, and affect sentiment.
With Chinese negotiators set to head to Washington for trade talks in early October, and overtones largely conciliatory, the fine wine market will be hoping for some positive news to emerge from these meetings.
Further cause for concern is to be found as HK moves into October, the pro-democracy demonstrations their 17th week, and HK it’s most serious political crisis in decades.
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At JF Tobias, we pride ourselves on being the best independent port of call in the fine wine market. If you have any questions about the market report, or would like to talk to someone regarding it, please contact us, and a member of the team will be delighted to assist.
